The 2022 Minnesota Twins had a strange 1st half of the 2022 MLB season. They’re in 1st place in the American League Central Division but only have the 6th best record in the American League and they ended the 1st-half* by going 3-7 in their last 10 games. There were multiple reasons why their 1st half was up & down.
*Actually more than half since the Minnesota Twins have already played 94 games this season.
Delayed from the Start
There is a dual meaning (or maybe more) to the season being delayed from the start. The season was delayed due to the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations. That shortened Spring Training to just 20 days and pushed the start of the season back a week. It also added a week to the end of the season since they missed 2 weeks of the original start of the regular season.
Then, their home opener was postponed due to inclement weather. A day off was already built into the schedule the next day.* This very new Twins team started their journey to figuring out who they are since they were largely assembled less than a month and up to what would’ve been that first game of the season as they made a trade on April 7th when they sent LH reliever Taylor Rogers & OF/DH Brent Rooker to the San Diego Padres for RH starter Chris Paddack and RH reliever Emilio Pagán. All of those moves meant there were 13 new players on the 28-man roster** to start the season.
*Was it good to have an extra day before starting the season? Probably not because it likely ended up just being a day off with no workout. Maybe a day of relative rest was a good thing.
**It was a 28-man roster because the MLB wanted to allow clubs to be able to add 2 more pitchers due to such a short spring training.
Do you like rollercoasters?
A graph of the Twins schedule from baseball-reference.com. The height of the bar is the margin of victory. The breaks in the graphs are the changing of the months.
It was pretty up and down for the first half of the season and that has included the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.
The Minnesota Twins started the season by losing 2 in a row at home by 1 run each, 2-1 & 4-3. The first game, they couldn’t get much going against one of the best pitchers in the league in Robbie Ray. They lost the 2nd game on a blown save in the 9th inning. They came back & won the next 2 games 10-4 behind 6 home runs and 4-0 behind 5 innings of 1-hit ball from RHP Dylan Bundy. The Dodgers then came to town for 2 games and destroyed all of those good feelings from the 2-game winning streak with a 2-game series sweep. A 2-4 record in the season-opening homestand but all but 1 of those games were winnable, one about 5 feet from a win.
On to the 1st road trip with 4 in Boston then 3 in KC. It started with an 8-4 win in Boston’s home opener with a great start from RHP Joe Ryan. They lost 2 in a row (4-0 & 8-1) then won 8-3 in the final game to gain a split but they lost the first 2 games in Kansas City (4-3, 2-0) but won 1-0 behind an 2nd consecutive great start by Joe Ryan. 5-8 after the first road trip of the season. Not great but it was early and there was still a lot to find out about this team.
They headed home for 6 against 2 division opponents in the Chicago White Sox & the Detroit Tigers and they ended up sweeping both series with some help from the Chicago defense, another great start from Dylan Bundy, one of the best moments of the season…
Pump this feeling into my veins… Every Damn Day! Bux-TON OF POWER!
, Detroit tossing the ball around, a Joe Ryan 7-inning, 9K shutout and a 7-1 win for 7 in a row and going from 5-8 to 11-8. Back on the road!
On to Tampa Bay where Dylan Bundy got hit hard & only 3 hits for the offense for a 6-1 loss to start a 3-gamer but some Garlick and a brilliant start to Josh Winder’s career made it a series win. They then won the first 2 (of 4) in Baltimore but Bundy got hit hard for the 2nd consecutive start and young rookie phenom RHP Jhoan Duran gave up back-to-back HRs for a 4-game series split.
The Twins responded with a home series sweep of Oakland but were quickly humbled after getting the news that RHP Chris Paddack would need Tommy John surgery for the 2nd time in his career & SS Carlos Correa would go on the injured list (IL) with a right finger contusion so he wasn’t able to face his former team. They were swept by the Houston Astros in a 3-game series at Target Field, 5-0, 11-3 & 5-0.
The injuries were already starting to build up at that point, too:
RHPs
Sonny Gray (hamstring strain)
Bailey Ober (groin strain)
Dylan Bundy (Covid)
Jorge Alcala (right elbow inflammation)
LHP
Danny Coulombe (left hip impingement)
1B/OF
Alex Kirilloff (right wrist inflammation)
1B
Miguel Sanó (left knee sprain-surgery needed)
1B/INF
Luis Arraez (Covid)
OF
Kyle Garlick (right calf strain)
That’s 3 pitchers from your starting rotation. The Twins have improved their depth with better prospects but how many teams can sustain injuries to 3 of the pitchers from their starting rotation?
The Minnesota Twins still responded by taking 2 of the next 3 against Cleveland at home then 2 of 3 in Oakland, sweeping 3 at KC, taking 2 of 3 in Detroit and splitting a 4-game series vs KC. That was May 29th. Their record was 29-20 and they had a 5-game lead in the division when they left to play 5 games in Detroit.* They won 1 of those 5 games thanks to LHP Devin Smeltzer who had a career stretch of starts that really helped the Twins get through a tough stretch.
*5 Games? Yeah, and 5 games in 4 days so a double-header. This also happened a month later in Cleveland. Has there ever been 5-game series in the regular season before?
Unfortunately, they had to add RHPs Josh Winder (right shoulder impingement), Cody Stashak (right shoulder impingement-out for the season) & Joe Ryan (Covid) to the injure list and then they lost exciting prospect Royce Lewis to another season-ending torn knee ligament injury.
Despite all of that, the Twins still had an 18-12 record in the month of May.
On to June and this rollercoaster was a little scary. Throughout the month, there were only 7 days where a game ended the same way as the previous game whether that be a loss or a win. They 2 in a row 3 times but won 2 in a row once & 3 in a row once. Highlights were road series wins over Toronto & Seattle and a home series win over Tampa Bay. The lowlights were a road series loss to Arizona and home & road series losses to Cleveland which included 5 games with blown saves and 2 walkoff wins to end the month but there were at least 7 blown saves and multiple games with multiple leads that didn’t last.
Strangely, during that 10-game stretch, the Twins were the only team Cleveland was beating and they shouldn’t have beat the Twins at all in the 7 games they played as the Twins had the lead late in every game. Maybe that’s why Cleveland went 7-10 on their way to the All-Star break.
July started off pretty well as they won 4 out of 5 before blowing a lead on the road against the Chicago White Sox then losing 2 of 3 in Texas. They split a 2-game series with Milwaukee at Target Field which included a great moment for rookie 3B Jose Miranda:
“Do you know Miranda?” You might wanna get to know him!
Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins then lost 3 of 4 at home to division rival Chicago to give them hope/momentum/belief heading into the all-star break.
So…what does it all mean?
Well, it means nothing either way. No team or player should worry about or count on the past to decide their future. If you had to choose, you’d always choose to go into any break in the season on a roll than losing 7 of 10.
Maybe the break will do the Twins some good, though. They’ve played more games than any other American League team that’s above .500.
Get some rest. They’ve had a full 5 days of them. Well, most of them anyway:
Byron Buxton & Luis Arraez were 1st-time All-Stars but they should have at least 2 days off.
MLB Trade Deadline is in 8 Days
The 2022 MLB Trade Deadline is just 8 days away and the Twins have some needs and most of them are on the mound and in the later innings.
Could they use some starting pitching? Sure, but they have pieces there and maybe the main thing is just the rotation healthy. They probably need at least 2 relievers even though it’s been said that RHP Kenta Maeda could come back in September and if he does, it would probably be as a reliever. The “if” means it’s not something they can count on so it shouldn’t affect what they do at the deadline. LHP Jovani Moran could probably get some more use in higher-leverage situations
C Ryan Jeffers just went on the IL on July 15th with a right thumb fracture that required surgery that’s supposed to keep him out for 6-8 weeks. The Twins selected the contract of C Caleb Hamilton and it sounds like they’re going to count on him &/or the other catcher depth they have in the minors to fill in as the backup catcher but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them acquire a catcher at the deadline as they also can’t count on Jeffers being ready with the regular healing timeline because every player is different.
RHP Bailey Ober has been out since June 2nd and has only pitched 19 innings since initially being placed on the Injured List on April 30th.
Is Sonny Gray healthy again? He’s been placed on the IL twice in the past twice: April 17th (Low grade right hamstring strain) & June 2nd (Right pectoral strain). He was activated on June 15th:
6 starts since:
5.23 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP in 29.1 innings (18) and he was knocked around in his last 3 starts (9.45 ERA, 2.025 WHIP, 8K)
Before June 15th:
7 starts: 2.41 ERA and a 0.980 WHIP in 33.2 innings (39K)
RHP Josh Winder was just placed on the IL for the Saints with right shoulder impingement syndrome. Trade Rumors have Mr. Winder as part of a trade for RHP Luis Castillo (The Athletic) along with SS Spencer Steer & RHP Simeon Woods Richardson. Josh Winder has looked very good so far in his young career (4-2, 2.87 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 31.1IP, 23K). So good that you’d think the Twins would be fine with having him as part of the rotation, especially with 5 more years of control.
Luis Castillo (29-years-old) in 2022:
3-4, 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 13 Starts: 78IP, 82K
Career:
43-53, 3.62 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 136 Starts: 785.1IP, 852K, 1.206 WHIP
He’s an impending free agent so should the price tag be that high for 2-3 months?
The Bullpen: Who can the Twins count on in the bullpen? RHP Jhoan Duran, RHP Griffin Jax & RHP Tyler Duffey? Duffey added a changeup back into his repertoire and since he’s done that, he’s looked like his old dominant self
Is there anyone else?
RHP Emilio Pagán?
He’s had the most struggles and they’ve been in the biggest situations so everyone sees it and thinks can’t pitch in those situations anymore. He’s missing his spots &/or throwing too many mistake pitches so does it come down to mechanics? Or maybe the better question is can it be fixed with mechanics? You know that pitching staff and Emilio will work on it so we’ll see how he does in the next week but even if he doesn’t allow any hits or walks over 5 appearances, it still might not be enough for the Front Office to not go get some help for the back end of their bullpen.
What about the Sano?
1B/DH Miguel Sanó: Today marks the last day the Big Guy can be on a rehab assignment and he started for the Triple-A St. Paul Saints tonight. He had 3 hits including a 2-R HR. He also had an error in the bottom of the 9th that ended up coming around to be the game-winning run in a walkoff.
He’s also hitting .348/.423/.826 (AVG/OBP/SLG) with 2 doubles, 3 home runs with 3 walks and 10 strikeouts in 7 games with the Saints. He also played 5 games for the Twins Gulf Coast League (Rookie) team and hit .313/.421/.750 (AVG/OBP/SLG) with 1 double, 2 home runs with 3 walks and 2 strikeouts.
So… what will they do with him? Does a player currently on the roster come up with an injury so they can activate Sanó? Gilberto Celestino, maybe? They might be able to move LHP Danny Coulombe to the 60-Day Injured List (IL) since he’s been on the 15-Day IL since May 28th (56 days ago) and his Expected Return is still listed as TBD.
LHP Caleb Thielbar was placed on the 15-Day IL today and RHP Yennier Cano was recalled from Triple-A St. Paul so if he (or another reliever) was used tonight, they could option him back down to make a spot, too. That’s highly doubtful because that would put the Twins down to just 12 pitchers but they are planning on going with a 4-man starting rotation because they have 4 days off in the next 3 weeks.
Sanó struggled this season from the start. He’s currently hitting just .093/.231/.148 with 1 XBH (HR), 3 RBI, 9 walks & 21 strikeouts in 17 games (54 at-bats) so maybe the time off has been a good thing as it may have given him time to figure out his mechanics and get some confidence back.
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Other Notes
*
This Is Byron’s Team
The Twins Front Office made a huge change on the field and in the clubhouse with all of the trades & signings. Were they making this Byron Buxton’s team? They just signed Bux to a huge extension and they also moved big personalities &/or leaders from the clubhouse in C Mitch Garver, 3B Josh Donaldson and Taylor Rogers (who was the Twins player representative for league-related business). Add that to them removing Nelson Cruz and José Berríos in 2021 and that’s a lot of change to a team’s clubhouse. You can probably even add Eddie Rosario to that list, too, and what did he do last season? That’s right. He won a World Series.
Were all of those moves done for that reason alone? It’s hard to say but when you have a season like the Twins did in 2021, change is needed and maybe a leadership/core change was the result. Byron has turned into a leader on & off the field. It’s easy to see the on the field things he does to lead this team.
Off the field leadership is a lot harder to see, though. New Twins shortstop, and a player who has helped lead his team to the promised land once already, Carlos Correa said “This is Byron Buxton’s team.” when he was asked if he was the leader of this team shortly before the season began.
**
Will this team go for it? If yes, how hard?
A lot of people think they’ll trade or should trade Carlos Correa to get prospects? It’s hard to fathom someone not understanding what they are trying to do. Do they think they’re trying to be mediocre? Does any team try to do that?
They want to win. There’s no other reason to be in that industry. It’s not like going to a job you hate and you just do it because it’s paying the bills.
“Well, that’s what they’ve always done” is a usual argument but is it? Is this what they’ve always done? They’ve never signed a player the caliber of Josh Donaldson. Then they backed that up by signing the top free agent in the class with Carlos Correa.
They’ve built a very good farm system that they can use to get some needed pieces for a run at the playoffs and maybe more.
They’ve been good enough to lead the division at the half-way point and they haven’t been consistent or very good. Can they get better? We believe the answer to that question is yes but it doesn’t matter what we believe. It’s what they believe. They’ve beat very good teams and been in position to win a lot of games but have faltered. Will they learn from that and improve? We’ll have to wait and see.
They’re also not going to drastically mortgage the future to make a desperate run at a championship if they don’t see it as a possibility.
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